THE IMPACT OF THE RELAXATION POLICY DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

Abstract

Abstrak

Semakin meluasnya dampak pandemi Covid-19 terhadap masyarakat, pada akhirnya akan merembet ke kondisi perekonomian masyarakat, baik dari sisi pendapatan, konsumsi, produksi, investasi maupun ekspor dan impor. Pemerintah mengatasi kemungkinan terburuk ini, dengan kebijakan relaksasi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah; menganalisis pengaruh konsumsi, investasi, pengeluaran pemerintah dan ekspor neto terhadap pendapatan domestik regional bruto di Indonesia sebelum dan setelah kebijakan relaksasi pemerintah. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan mengambil data konsumsi, investasi, pengeluaran pemerintah dan ekspor neto Indonesia dari Januari 2010 sampai Maret 2020. Data dianalisis dengan menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Sebelum dianalisis, data akan melalui tahapan uji asumsi, kemudian dilakukan uji VECM, dan uji signifikansi data. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang semua data berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pendapatan nasional, tetapi tidak dalam jangka pendek. Ada beberapa yang tidak berpengaruh signifikan, misalnya Ekspor (-2), Impor (-2) , Konsumsi (-2), FDI (-1) , PMA (-2), PMDN (-1), PMDN (-2), sedangkan variabel lain berpengaruh signifikan. Kondisi ini disebabkan proses produksi yang memakan waktu lebih dari satu tahun untuk meningkatkan PDB. Selain itu, regulasi dan birokrasi yang berlaku tidak mendorong peningkatan produksi yang pada akhirnya memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi.

Kata kunci: Konsumsi, Investasi, Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Net Ekspor, Kebijakan Relaksasi

THE IMPACT OF THE RELAXATION POLICY DURING THE COVID – 19 PANDEMIC ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

Abstract

The more widespread the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the community, will eventually spread to the economic conditions of the community, both in terms of income, consumption, production, investment as well as exports and imports. The government overcomes this worst possibility, with a relaxation policy. The purpose of this research are; to analyze the effect of consumption, investment, government spending and net exports on gross regional domestic income in Indonesia prior to the government's relaxation policy. This research, conducted by taking data on consumption, investment, government spending and net exports of Indonesia from January 2010 to March 2020. Data were analyzed by using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Before being analyzed, the data will pass through the assumption test stages, then the VECM test is carried out, and the data significance test. The results show that in the long run all data have a significant effect on national income, but not while in the short run. There are some that do not have a significant effect, for example Export (-2), Import (-2), Consumption (-2), FDI (-1) , PMA (-2), PMDN (-1), PMDN (-2), while other variables have a significant effect. This condition is due to the production process which takes more than one year to increase the PDB. Apart from that, the prevailing regulations, regulations and bureaucracy do not stimulate an increase in production which ultimately slows economic growth.

Keywords: Consumption, Investment, Government Spending, Net Exports, Relaxation Policy